Welcome to the Future!

FORECASTS AND TRENDS

Interesting times ahead...

Visions of the future begin with analysis that allows us to forecast probable events, outcomes, and opportunities. The Futures Corporation has for years been guided by key questions: Given a particular interpretation of the data, what is the potential for something to occur? What is the probability? What is inevitable, regardless of what we do? How we prepare properly?

We take our clients through intensive analysis and scenario planning sessions to generate reasonable forecasts about probable futures. More critically, we help them assess the impact of those scenarios and develop strategic plans, thoughtful employees, and capable organizations that can address the challenges ahead.

Is your agency, city or county prepared?

Global Trends for the Next 25 years...

Globalization will continue, but will evolve at a slower pace. Aggregation of positive and negative forces will contribute to segment the ‘Global Community’ as enterprise and economics are countered by environmental, nationalistic, and religious forces. Communication will promote connectivity – fostering both positive and negative communities that seek identity, meaning, and influence.

Economics will be the key engine for global development – not military might or political power. Business will ebb and flow as it finds a new center after several years of over-expansion then serious economic distress; those who create beneficial outputs and outcomes will attract larger followings and associated strength on the world stage. Emerging societies want progress and will ally with those who are willing to support their development – regardless of ideology.

Organizations such as the Earth Policy Institute will gain more power as extinction events occur and climate change becomes both irrefutable and more catastrophic. People and governments will listen but it is already too late for many species and ecosystems. The negative cycle has gone too far…

World population has been predicted to grow to slightly over 9 billion by 2050; this may prove to be too high as populations face flooding, drought, disease and migration exacerbated by climate change and non-attention to fundamental preservation principles. However, fertility rates are beginning to inch upward and worldwide attention to prenatal, infant and adult healthcare may balance natural forces that impact the longevity of populations. While a contradiction, if positive forces win out population could exceed expectations.

Birthrates will continue to lag in many developed or emerging countries, adding to social and economic decline, or, at a minimum, reducing the potential for dynamic markets and escalating enterprise.

Natural resources will be harder to find and extract, creating high prices and enormous competition. Those having economic resources will escalate natural resource use and depletion rates will soar. Within 40 years, this will lead to huge economic and geo-political challenges and could result in resource stimulated class war as well as those prompted by resource-driven economics.

Water will become an even greater common denominator for both economic and health challenges, but also for its ability to cause catastrophic floods and water-driven natural disasters. While many nations are water-poor and will become more so, others are prone to flooding through rising seas and changing weather patterns. Either way, water will become more prominent as a cause for war, a contributor or detractor to economic and personal health, and a life source that will for some grow by 2100 more precious than oil.

 Public Sector Trends

There will be an accelerating movement toward consolidation – local city and county government will begin to merge, especially where economies of scale and obvious benefits are available for reduced cost.

Retirements among Baby Boomers will create a huge loss of institutional memory, skills, productivity and professional networks. If many ‘Boomers’ continue working the impact could be minimized.

There is a growing gap between reality of ‘Converging Variables’ and the number of communities willing to make necessary changes. Many municipalities are or will become totally unprepared for emerging challenges.

Government performance – effectiveness, efficiency, productivity and quality will and must receive more attention – citizens will insist on measured performance.

The need for strong public leadership will continue to grow as challenges escalate, resources become more finite, and conflicting needs create conflict and competition. Proven public manager/ leaders will be in great demand and competition will be fierce for their services.

Citizens will seek stability…communities are growing weary of disharmony and polarity around critical issues. Even if sacrifice is required people will seek collaboration and harmony. Political parties will be slow to get the message…

Unfortunately, far too many communities will fail to embrace the need to transition to mass transit and sensible transportation systems, while pollution, congestion, and fuel costs soar. This will breed enormous problems for many large and small metro areas.

Professional training and continuing education will become a greater dichotomy. In tight fiscal cycles training declines but the pace of technology coupled with workplace complexity, demand and retirements make employee training and development even more critical for public agencies. Communities with strong training programs will be more efficient, productive and stable.

Future trend analysis and forecasting will become essential as communities seek to address deteriorating infrastructure, growing demand, frustrated citizens, huge debt, and greater competition for resources and business. Many communities participate in planning. Few create competent plans and fewer still are able to implement a shared vision.

Economic development will grow in stature as communities seek to become ‘magnetic’ to attract business, talent, and visitors. Communities with few attributes or resources will decline and ultimately perish.